Ernst, K. M., and B. L. Preston, 2017: Adaptation opportunities and constraints in coupled systems: Evidence from the U.S. energy-water nexus. van der Wiel, K., S. B. Kapnick, G. J. van Oldenborgh, K. Whan, S. Philip, G. A. Vecchi, R. K. Singh, J. Arrighi, and H. Cullen, 2017: Rapid attribution of theAugust 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change. Acadiana Planning Commission, 2018: APC Board allocates $25 million in HMGP funding to regional flood mitigation projects. Habeeb, D., J. Vargo, and B. Rural Communities near North Carolinas coasts are neither consistently prospering nor uniformly in decline. https://www.ncbroadband.gov/connectingnc/broadband-adoption. The storm tracked up the west coast of Florida, impacting both coasts of the Florida peninsula with 35 feet of inundation from Cape Canaveral north to the FloridaGeorgia border and even further, impacting coastal areas of Georgia and South Carolina with high tides and storm surge that reached 35 feet. Many of these urban areas are rapidly growing and offer opportunities to adopt effective adaptation efforts to prevent future negative impacts of climate change (very likely, high confidence). Park, J. Marra, C. Zervas, and S. Gill, 2014: Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency Changes Around the United States. Lane, D. R., R. C. Ready, R. W. Buddemeier, J. 7: Ecosystems).136,137. A state of emergency was declared in four states from Florida north to Virginia and in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and, for the first time ever, Atlanta was placed under a tropical storm warning.105,106,107,108 In Florida, a record 6.8 million people were ordered to evacuate, as were 540,000 coastal residents in Georgia and untold numbers in other coastal locations.102,109,110 Nearly 192,000 evacuees were housed in approximately 700 emergency shelters in Florida alone.109 According to NOAAs National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI),84 Irma significantly damaged 65% of the buildings in the Keys and destroyed 25% of them. A. Maynard, G. Diaz-Pulido, P. J. Mumby, P. A. Marshall, L. Cao, and O. V. E. Hoegh-Guldberg, 2011: Ocean acidification and warming will lower coral reef resilience. However, between 1932 and 2016, Louisiana lost 2,006 square miles of land area (see Case Study A Lesson Learned for Community Resettlement),211 due in part to high rates of relative sea level rise.212,213,214,215 The rate of wetland loss during this period equates to Louisiana losing an area the size of one football field every 34 to 100 minutes.211 To protect and restore the Louisiana coast, the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) has worked with local, state, and federal partners to iteratively develop a 2017 Coastal Master Plan that identifies investments that can provide direct restoration and risk reduction benefits.216 The aim of the 50-year, $50-billion strategy is to sustain Louisianas coastal ecosystems, safeguard coastal populations, and protect vital economic and cultural resources.216. Park, 2014: From the extreme to the mean: Acceleration and tipping points of coastal inundation from sea level rise. Multiple lines of research have shown that global sea levels have increased in the past and are projected to continue to accelerate in the future due to increased global temperature and that higher local sea level rise rates in the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts have occurred.51,52,53,54,55,56,57,59,61,62, Annual occurrences of high tide flooding have increased, causing several Southeast coastal cities to experience all-time records of occurrences that are posing daily risks.1,52,58,60,61,63,67,68, There is scientific consensus that sea level rise will continue to cause increases in high tide flooding in the Southeast as well as impact the frequency and duration of extreme water level events, causing an increase in the vulnerability of coastal populations and property.1,60,63,67,68, In the future, coastal flooding is projected to become more serious, disruptive, and costly as the frequency, depth, and inland extent grow with time.1,2,35,64,65,67,68, Many analyses have determined that extreme rainfall events have increased in the Southeast, and under higher scenarios, the frequency and intensity of these events are projected to increase.19,21,88, Rainfall records have shown that since NCA3, many intense rainfall events (approaching 500-year events) have occurred in the Southeast, with some causing billions of dollars in damage and many deaths.68,82,84, The flood events in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, in 2016 and in South Carolina in 2015 provide real examples of how vulnerable inland and coastal communities are to extreme rainfall events.81,85,86, The socioeconomic impacts of climate change on the Southeast is a developing research field.65,71. 12: Transportation, KM 1). The Southeast Coastal non-metropolitan area includes Beaufort, Bladen, Carteret, Columbus, Duplin, Greene, Harnett, Lenoir, Robeson, Sampson, Scotland, and Wilson counties. Masson, V., C. Marchadier, L. Adolphe, R. Aguejdad, P. Avner, M. Bonhomme, G. Bretagne, X. Briottet, B. Bueno, C. de Munck, O. Doukari, S. Hallegatte, J. Hidalgo, T. Houet, J. A. Provancha, A. Brooks, A. Jardim, M. Lpez-Mendilaharsu, D. Gonzlez-Paredes, A. Estrades, A. Fallabrino, G. Martnez-Souza, G. M. Vlez-Rubio, R. H. Boulon, J. 2019. Large ports in the Southeast, such as Charleston, Savannah, and Jacksonville, and the rails and roads that link to them, are particularly vulnerable to both coastal flooding and sea level rise (Ch. WebThe Southeasts coastal plain and inland low-lying regions support a rapidly growing population, a tourism economy, critical industries, and important cultural resources that are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. While some climate change impacts, such as sea level rise and extreme downpours, are being acutely felt now, others, like increasing exposure to dangerous high temperatures, humidity, and new local diseases, are expected to become more significant in the coming decades. Web Design & Development by Upward Brand Interactions Seminole Tribe of Florida. before making use of copyrighted material. The U.S. Lovelock, C. E., K. W. Krauss, M. J. Osland, R. Reef, and M. C. Ball, 2016: The physiology of mangrove trees with changing climate. Oxford University Press, Oxford; New York, 432 pp. A. Whittington, and R. Paperno, 2016: Resilience of a tropical sport fish population to a severe cold event varies across five estuaries in southern Florida. In the Upper Coastal Plain, which covers the central and southwestern portions of the state, agriculture is the dominant activity. Urban and rural areas exist along a continuum from major metro areas to suburbs, small towns, and lightly populated places. NASS, 2017: Farm labor methodology and quality measures. Jones, W. D., 1979: Effects of the 1978 freeze on native plants of Sonora, Mexico. The decade of the 2010s through 2017 is the warmest in all seasons for average daily minimum temperature and in winter and spring for average daily maximum temperature. Woodroffe, C. D., K. Rogers, K. L. McKee, C. E. Lovelock, I. The prolonged inundation and lack of oxygen that result from extreme rainfall events can also result in mortality and large impacts to natural systems.233 In combination, future increases in both extreme drought and extreme rainfall are expected to transform many southeastern ecosystems. In the future, the gravity-driven nature of many of these systems may cease to function as designed, causing rainwater to flood streets and neighborhoods until the tide lowers and water can drain normally. California Privacy Rights Rural communities are integral to the Southeasts cultural heritage and to the strong agricultural and forest products industries across the region. doi: Dahl, K. A., E. Spanger-Siegfried, A. Caldas, and S. Udvardy, 2017: Effective inundation of continental United States communities with 21st century sea level rise. Engle, V. D., 2011: Estimating the provision of ecosystem services by Gulf of Mexico coastal wetlands. Traditionally, governments and companies have taken a reactive, risk-based approach to water management, one that focuses on mitigating the economic consequences of floods and droughts but pays little consideration to environmental impacts. For example, as of 2010, Latinos made up 20.6% of the population in Duplin County, 16.5% in Sampson, and 14.3% in Greene, whereas they made up 10.2% of the population in metropolitan Wake County. Emrich, C. T., D. P. Morath, G. C. Bowser, and R. Reeves, 2014: Climate-sensitive hazards in Florida: Identifying and prioritizing threats to build resilience against climate effects. At the coast, a combination of high tide and heavy rain caused significant flooding in downtown Charleston. For example, higher rates of heat-related illness have been reported in rural North Carolina compared to urban locations.280 However, strategies to reduce health impacts on hot days, such as staying indoors or altering times outdoors, are already contributing to reducing heat-related illness in the Southeast.281, Workers in the agriculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing sectors together with construction and support, waste, and remediation services work are the most highly vulnerable to heat-related deaths in the United States, representing almost 68% of heat-related deaths nationally.282 Six of the ten states with the highest occupational heat-related deaths in these sectors are in the Southeast region, accounting for 28.6% of occupational heat-related deaths between 2000 and 2010.282 By 2090, under a higher scenario (RCP8.5), the Southeast is projected to have the largest heat-related impacts on labor productivity in the country, resulting in average annual losses of 570 million labor hours, or $47 billion (in 2015 dollars, undiscounted), a cost representing a third of total national projected losses, although these figures do not include adaptations by workers or industries (Figure 19.21).35, Investing in increased cooling is one likely form of adaptation. Morin, C. W., A. C. Comrie, and K. Ernst, 2013: Climate and dengue transmission: Evidence and implications. Enwright, N. M., K. T. Griffith, and M. J. Osland, 2016: Barriers to and opportunities for landward migration of coastal wetlands with sea-level rise. There is very high confidence that southeastern cities will likely be impacted by climate change, especially in the areas of infrastructure and human health. 13: Air Quality, KM 1). Recent changes in metropolitan-nonmetropolitan migration streams. Fire has historically played an important role in the region, and ecological diversity in many southeastern natural systems is dependent upon fire.115,116,134,189 In the future, rising temperatures and increases in the duration and intensity of drought are expected to increase wildfire occurrence and also reduce the effectiveness of prescribed fire.3,4,5,6, Hurricanes and rising sea levels are aspects of climate change that will have a tremendous effect on coastal ecosystems in the Southeast. Mitchell, R. J., Y. Liu, J. J. O'Brien, K. J. Elliott, G. Starr, C. F. Miniat, and J. K. Hiers, 2014: Future climate and fire interactions in the southeastern region of the United States. Stephens, S. L., J. J. Moghaddas, C. Edminster, C. E. Fiedler, S. Haase, M. Harrington, J. E. Keeley, E. E. Knapp, J. D. McIver, K. Metlen, C. N. Skinner, and A. Youngblood, 2009: Fire treatment effects on vegetation structure, fuels, and potential fire severity in western U.S. forests. Zhang, Y., and Y. Wang, 2016: Climate-driven ground-level ozone extreme in the fall over the Southeast United States. Increases in temperatures, water stress, freeze-free days, drought, and wildfire risks, together with changing conditions for invasive species and the movement of diseases, create a number of potential risks for existing agricultural systems (Ch.
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